Carbon budget and national gross domestic product in the framework of the Paris Climate Agreement

Abstract

In 2015 an unprecedented effort was made in Paris by the countries adhering to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to decrease the CO2 emissions due to the close relationships of greenhouse gases with global warming. Under the previous Kyoto Protocol, only advanced countries were committed to reduce greenhouse emissions while under the Paris Climate Agreement all countries were committed to fight against global warming. The urgency of real action has been prompted by extreme events like bushfires, heatwaves, and the ongoing pandemic. Given the strong commitments, it looks interesting, seen that all countries are involved, to verify if any sustainability pattern is evident. Our approach is encouraging, as the downward emission trend shows a high increase in sustainability between 2027 and 2037. Without exacerbating the climate discussion, we used the national gross domestic product (hereafter: GDP) as environmental indicator to propose for the first time an allometric ranking of countries that need to change drastically their energy policy to meet their climate commitments. Any sustainability downturn in one country, especially if advanced, might rationally bring concern about the actual prospects of other countries which are all committed to the Paris Climate Agreement. But the departure from the annual allometric model GDP−CO2 may be much greater than can be accounted for by statistical expectations, as for Ukraine, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan that are entering a sustainable condition where their CO2 emissions will be lower than they would have been without the Paris Climate Agreement.

Keywords

• Allometric modelling
• Carbon dioxide (CO2)
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
• Paris Agreement
• Sustainability scenarios