Bayesian analysis of Glucose dynamics during the Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT)

Abstract

This paper proposes a model that considers the action and timing of insulin and glucagon in glucose homeostasis after an oral stimulus. We use the Bayesian paradigm to infer kinetic rates, namely insulin and glucagon secretion, gastrointestinal emptying, and basal glucose concentration in blood. We identify two insulin scores related to glucose concentration in both blood and the gastrointestinal tract. The scores allow us to suggest a classification for individuals with impaired insulin sensitivity.

Keywords

• ogtt
• bayesian inference
• type 2 diabetes
• glucose dynamics
• dynamical systems