APPLICATION OF DECISION MAKING WITH UNCERTAINTY TECHNIQUES: A CASE OF PRODUCTION VOLUME OF MAIZE IN ETHIOPIA

Abstract

Making of an appropriate decision is a challenge that also determines the success of an organization like Adet Agricultural Research Institute. In this agricultural research institute, production volumes of different maize variety relating to the amount of annual rainfall have been considered as decision strategies or alternatives with their consequences. The decision strategies are based on the amount of annual rainfall. The volume of production of different maize varieties are dependent on the amount of annual rainfall at different locations in Adet Woreda. Hence, the purpose of this study is to analyze and identify optimal strategic decisions for increasing production volume of six variety of maize in Ethiopia - Adet Woreda. The study has applied the five basic techniques for decision making with uncertainty. An eight ye ar production trend of the six variety of maize with different rainfall has been considered in this region to generate different alternatives and finally an optimal strategy has been identified. Accordingly, alternative five (variety PCS.6) is recommended to cultivate in this region, to get maximum production volume annually.

Keywords

• Decision making with uncertainty
• production volume of variety of maize
• decision alternatives