Journal of Multidisciplinary Healthcare (Oct 2023)

Risk Factor Analysis and Nomogram for Predicting In-Hospital Mortality in ICU Patients with Heat Stroke: A National Multicenter Study

  • Wang L,
  • Fu X,
  • He M,
  • Shi L,
  • Wan D,
  • Wang Y,
  • Wu Q,
  • Yang J,
  • Cai B,
  • Xia H,
  • Chen H,
  • Zhang G,
  • Lei X,
  • Zhang W,
  • Feng Z,
  • Wang B,
  • Zhang Z

Journal volume & issue
Vol. Volume 16
pp. 3189 – 3201

Abstract

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Lietao Wang,1,* Xin Fu,1,* Min He,1,* Lvyuan Shi,1 Dingyuan Wan,1 Yucong Wang,1 Qin Wu,1 Jing Yang,1 Bayuan Cai,2 Hongtao Xia,3 Hongxu Chen,4 Ge Zhang,5 Xianying Lei,6 Wei Zhang,7 Zhongxue Feng,7 Bo Wang,1 Zhongwei Zhang1 On behalf of Heat Stroke Research Group in Southwestern China1Department of Critical Care Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Critical Care Medicine, The People’s Hospital of Jiajiang, Leshan, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Critical Care Medicine, Suining Central Hospital, Suining, People’s Republic of China; 4Department of Critical Care Medicine, The Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine of Leshan, Leshan, People’s Republic of China; 5Department of Critical Care Medicine, The First People’s Hospital of Longquanyi District, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China; 6Department of Critical Care Medicine, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China; 7Department of Critical Care Medicine, State Key Laboratory of Biotherapy and Cancer Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University and Collaborative Innovation Center of Biotherapy, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Bo Wang; Zhongwei Zhang, Department of Critical Care Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 37, Guoxue Alley, Chengdu, 610041, People’s Republic of China, Tel/Fax +86-28-85422739, Email [email protected]; [email protected]: The aim of this nationwide multicenter study was to ascertain the risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with heat stroke admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) and to develop a nomogram for prognostic prediction.Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on clinical data collected from ICU patients diagnosed with heat stroke across multiple centers nationwide. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify significant risk factors for in-hospital mortality. Based on the results of the multivariate analysis, a nomogram was constructed to estimate the individualized probability of mortality. Internal validation of the nomogram was performed, and its performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA).Results: A total of 292 ICU patients with heat stroke were included in this study. Three risk factors, namely Cr (creatinine), AST (aspartate aminotransferase), and SBP (systolic blood pressure), were found to be significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. These risk factors were incorporated into the nomogram, which exhibited good discriminative ability (area under the ROC curve of the training and validation cohorts were 0.763 and 0.739, respectively) and calibration. Internal validation and decision curve analysis confirmed the stability and reliability of the nomogram.Conclusion: This nationwide multicenter study identified key risk factors for in-hospital mortality in ICU patients with heat stroke. The developed nomogram provides an individualized prediction of mortality risk and can serve as a valuable tool for clinicians in the assessment and management of ICU patients with heat stroke.Keywords: heat stroke, intensive care unit, in-hospital mortality, risk factors, nomogram

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