Nature Communications (Aug 2022)

Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era

  • Rosanna C. Barnard,
  • Nicholas G. Davies,
  • Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 working group,
  • Mark Jit,
  • W. John Edmunds

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32404-y
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 13, no. 1
pp. 1 – 15

Abstract

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This mathematical modelling study projects the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in England until the end of 2022 assuming that the Omicron BA.2 sublineage remains dominant. They show that booster vaccination was highly effective in mitigating severe outcomes and that future dynamics will depend greatly on assumptions about waning immunity.