An adaptive weight ensemble approach to forecast influenza activity in an irregular seasonality context

Abstract

Abstract Forecasting influenza activity in tropical and subtropical regions, such as Hong Kong, is challenging due to irregular seasonality and high variability. We develop a diverse set of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches to forecast influenza activity in Hong Kong 0 to 8 weeks ahead, leveraging a unique multi-year surveillance record spanning 32 epidemics from 1998 to 2019. We consider a simple average ensemble (SAE) of the top two individual models, and develop an adaptive weight blending ensemble (AWBE) that dynamically updates model contribution. All models outperform the baseline constant incidence model, reducing the root mean square error (RMSE) by 23%–29% and weighted interval score (WIS) by 25%–31% for 8-week ahead forecasts. The SAE model performed similarly to individual models, while the AWBE model reduces RMSE by 52% and WIS by 53%, outperforming individual models for forecasts in different epidemic trends (growth, plateau, decline) and during both winter and summer seasons. Using the post-COVID data (2023–2024) as another test period, the AWBE model still reduces RMSE by 39% and WIS by 45%. Our framework contributes to comparing and benchmarking models in ensemble forecasts, enhancing evidence for synthesizing multiple models in disease forecasting for geographies with irregular influenza seasonality.