Global Ecology and Conservation (Dec 2021)
The future of a montane orchid species and the impact of climate change on the distribution of its pollinators and magnet species
Abstract
The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of global warming on suitable niches of montane orchid, Traunsteinera globosa, using ecological niche modelling approach. Additionally, the effect of various climate change scenarios on future changes in the distribution and overlap of the orchid magnet species and pollinators was estimated. According to the conducted analyses the coverage of suitable niches of T. globosa will significantly decrease as a result of global warming and also pollinators of this orchid will face the habitat loss. The most important pollinators which will be present for most populations of the studied orchid will be Acmaeops collaris, Eristalis pertinax, Eristalis tenax and Rutpela maculata. The magnet species, Trifolium pratense, will be absent only in 5% of T. globosa range and in these regions the pollination success of orchid can be reduced. Another interesting result of the present study is that all models created for T. globosa indicated parts of the Caucasus as suitable for the occurrence of this orchid. Currently, these regions are home to other Traunsteinera representative – T. sphaerica which morphologically resembles T. globosa but it has white flowers. This result raise a question of the actual separateness of the two Traunsteinera species. It is possible that T. sphaerica should be considered as an ecotype of T. globosa.
