Scientific Reports (Jan 2024)

Spatio-temporal epidemiology and associated indicators of COVID-19 (wave-I and II) in India

  • Karuppusamy Balasubramani,
  • Venkatesh Ravichandran,
  • Kumar Arun Prasad,
  • Mu. Ramkumar,
  • Sulochana Shekhar,
  • Meenu Mariya James,
  • Naveen Kumar Kodali,
  • Sujit Kumar Behera,
  • Natarajan Gopalan,
  • Rakesh Kumar Sharma,
  • Devojit Kumar Sarma,
  • M. Santosh,
  • Aditya Prasad Dash,
  • Praveen Balabaskaran Nina

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-50363-2
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 14, no. 1
pp. 1 – 12

Abstract

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Abstract The spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 across India’s states and union territories is not uniform, and the reasons for the heterogeneous spread are unclear. Identifying the space–time trends and underlying indicators influencing COVID-19 epidemiology at micro-administrative units (districts) will help guide public health strategies. The district-wise daily COVID-19 data of cases and deaths from February 2020 to August 2021 (COVID-19 waves-I and II) for the entire country were downloaded and curated from public databases. The COVID-19 data normalized with the projected population (2020) and used for space–time trend analysis shows the states/districts in southern India are the worst hit. Coastal districts and districts adjoining large urban regions of Mumbai, Chennai, Bengaluru, Goa, and New Delhi experienced > 50,001 cases per million population. Negative binomial regression analysis with 21 independent variables (identified through multicollinearity analysis, with VIF < 10) covering demography, socio-economic status, environment, and health was carried out for wave-I, wave-II, and total (wave-I and wave-II) cases and deaths. It shows wealth index, derived from household amenities datasets, has a high positive risk ratio (RR) with COVID-19 cases (RR: 3.577; 95% CI: 2.062–6.205) and deaths (RR: 2.477; 95% CI: 1.361–4.506) across the districts. Furthermore, socio-economic factors such as literacy rate, health services, other workers’ rate, alcohol use in men, tobacco use in women, overweight/obese women, and rainfall have a positive RR and are significantly associated with COVID-19 cases/deaths at the district level. These positively associated variables are highly interconnected in COVID-19 hotspot districts. Among these, the wealth index, literacy rate, and health services, the key indices of socio-economic development within a state, are some of the significant indicators associated with COVID-19 epidemiology in India. The identification of district-level space–time trends and indicators associated with COVID-19 would help policymakers devise strategies and guidelines during public health emergencies.