Trends and future burden of tobacco-related cancers incidence in Delhi urban areas: 1988–2012

Abstract

Introduction: Tobacco products are the major contributors for various cancers and other diseases. In India, tobacco-related cancers (TRCs) contribute nearly half of the total cancers in males and one-fifth in females. Objective: The objective of the study is to investigate 25-year trends and projection of TRCs for 2018–2022. Methods: Joinpoint analysis was performed to assess the trends of TRCs on world age-adjusted rates. Age-period-cohort model with power link function was performed to project the future incidence burden of TRCs in urban Delhi. Results: During the 25 years, a total of 67,129 TRCs (53,125 males and 14,004 females) were registered which was 25.4% of total cancer cases registered. Males contributed 39.1% and females 10.8% of total cases. In males, TRCs declined significantly from 1988 to 2003 with estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = −0.91% and thereafter increasing trend was observed with EAPC = 3.42%, while in females, the EAPC values were 2.2% and 3.54% respectively for the same period. The total burden of TRCs will be doubled in 2018–2022 with around 46% change due to cancer risk and around 54% due to population age and size in both the genders. The average annual count in males will be 7310 in 2018–2022 as compared to 3571 in 2008–2012 while in females this count will be increased to 2066 from 955 based on recent slope. Conclusion: The incidence of TRCs is increasing due to increase in population age, size, and factors other than population. TRCs are the preventable cancers, and load of these cancers can be controlled with strictly adhering the policy and acts.

Keywords

• Age-period-cohort model
• joinpoint
• projection
• tobacco cancer
• trend