Near-Real-Time Global Thermospheric Density Variations Unveiled by Starlink Ephemeris

Abstract

Previous efforts to retrieve thermospheric density using satellite payloads have been limited to a small number of satellites equipped with GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) receivers and accelerometers. These satellites are confined to a few orbital planes, and analysis can only be conducted after the data are processed and updated, resulting in sparse and delayed thermospheric density datasets. In recent years, the Starlink constellation, developed and deployed by SpaceX, has emerged as the world’s largest low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation, with over 6000 satellites in operations as of October 2024. Through the strategic use of multiple orbital shells featuring various inclinations and altitudes, Starlink ensures continuous near-global coverage. Due to extensive coverage and frequent maneuvers, SpaceX has publicly released predicted ephemeris data for all Starlink satellites since May 2021, with updates approximately every 8 h. With the ephemeris data of Starlink satellites, we first apply a maneuver detection algorithm based on mean orbital elements to analyze their maneuvering behavior. The results indicate that Starlink satellites exhibit more frequent maneuvers during thermospheric disturbances. Then, we calculate the mechanical energy loss caused by non-conservative forces (primarily atmospheric drag) through precise dynamical models. The results demonstrate that, despite certain limitations in Starlink ephemeris data, the calculated mechanical energy loss still effectively captures thermospheric density variations during both quiet and disturbed geomagnetic periods. This finding is supported by comparisons with Swarm-B data, revealing that SpaceX incorporates the latest space environment conditions into its orbit extrapolation models during each ephemeris update. With a maximum lag of only 8 h, this approach enables near-real-time monitoring of thermospheric density variations using Starlink ephemeris.

Keywords

• Starlink
• ephemeris
• maneuver detection
• mechanical energy loss
• thermospheric density
• geomagnetic storm