Spatial Analysis of Earthquake Risk in Arid Regions of Iran Using Sustainable Population Approach (Case Study: South Khorasan Province)

Abstract

Due to the fact that our country is located on the Alps-Himalayan earthquake belt and there are many faults, the occurrence of this earthquake on this plateau is a natural thing to take into account the fact that 66% of our land area is located in earthquake zones and 90% of the country's population. We live in these areas to identify high risk seismic sites to reduce earthquake damage. In this study, earthquake hazard in south Khorasan province is estimated and zoned based on probabilistic method. In order to implement this method, 7 potential seismic springs in the area were first identified based on the frequency of earthquakes and fault types and defined in Arc GIS software and defined as single layer. Earthquake data uniformly used earthquakes consisting of 5 historical earthquakes and 486 earthquakes from 1900 to 2015. The earthquake data were entered into ZMAP software and the aftershocks and aftershocks as well as earthquakes witcalculated by the Gutenberg-Richter relation of values a and b. Then, using the KIJKO 2001 software, the values of β, λ and expected maximum value (Mmax) were calculated and in the final step the acceleration of the springs activity using EZ-FRISK 7.52 software for the period Returns of 50, 100, 475, 1000, and 2475 years were estimated. According to the results, the eastern and western parts of South Khorasan province are more seismic than other parts. Mapping maps and faults of the region are defined as different layers in GIS environment.

Keywords

• spatial analysis
• sustainable population settlement
• land planning
• south khorasan