Prognosis and risk factor assessment of patients with advanced lung cancer with low socioeconomic status: model development and validation

Abstract

Abstract Background Lung cancer, a major global health concern, disproportionately impacts low socioeconomic status (SES) patients, who face suboptimal care and reduced survival. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic performance of traditional Cox proportional hazards (CoxPH) regression and machine learning models, specifically Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), in patients with advanced lung cancer with low SES. Design A retrospective study. Method The 949 patients with advanced lung cancer with low SES who entered the hospice ward of a tertiary hospital in Wuhan, China, from January 2012 to December 2021 were randomized into training and testing groups in a 3:1 ratio. CoxPH regression methods and four machine learning algorithms (DT, RF, SVM, and XGBoost) were used to construct prognostic risk prediction models. Results The CoxPH regression-based nomogram demonstrated reliable predictive accuracy for survival at 60, 90, and 120 days. Among the machine learning models, XGBoost showed the best performance, whereas RF had the lowest accuracy at 60 days, DT at 90 days, and SVM at 120 days. Key predictors across all models included Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS) score, quality of life (QOL) score, and cough symptoms. Conclusions CoxPH, DT, RF, SVM, and XGBoost models are effective in predicting mortality risk over 60–120 days in patients with advanced lung cancer with low SES. Monitoring KPS, QOL, and cough symptoms is crucial for identifying high-risk patients who may require intensified care. Clinicians should select models tailored to individual patient needs and preferences due to varying prediction accuracies. Reporting method This study was reported in strict compliance with the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) guideline. Patient or public contribution No patient or public contribution.

Keywords

• Advanced lung cancer
• Socioeconomic status
• Prognosis
• Machine learning