Statistical estimation of deltoid subcutaneous fat pad thickness: implications for needle length for vaccination

Abstract

Abstract Current US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention intramuscular injection needle length guidelines for injection fo the deltoid muscle are based on weight and gender. The aims of this study are (1) to evaluate whether other biometric data (age, gender, height, weight and body mass index (BMI)) are better predictors of the thickness of the deltoid subcutaneous fat pad (DSFP) than weight and gender and (2) to evaluate the performance of the CDC weight-based needle length guidelines. This was a retrospective single center cohort study of 386 patients who underwent surveillance PET/CT between 01/01/2020 and 04/01/2021. Patient age, gender, height, weight, BMI and CT measurements of the DSFP were evaluated. DSFP was positively correlated with weight and BMI in men (r = 0.67, P < 0.001; r = 0.74, P < 0.001) and women (r = 0.69, P < 0.001; r = 0.75, P < 0.001) respectively. DSFP was negatively correlated with age in women (r = − 0.19, P = 0.013). Age and BMI were better predictors of DSFP than weight. The best model to predict the DSFP is: $$DSFP in mm= 6.267199 -2.711159*Male + 0.228407*BMI + 0.012295*{BMI}^{2} -0.294211*BMI*Male -0.110063*Age + 0.085589*Age*Male$$ D S F P i n m m = 6.267199 - 2.711159 ∗ M a l e + 0.228407 ∗ B M I + 0.012295 ∗ BMI 2 - 0.294211 ∗ B M I ∗ M a l e - 0.110063 ∗ A g e + 0.085589 ∗ A g e ∗ M a l e A 1-inch needle is expected to reach the deltoid in 85.3% of women less than 200 pounds, and 98.6% of men less than 260 pounds. This rate differed between genders (P < 0.001, odds ratio (OR) 0.08, 95% CI (0.02, 0.29)). A 1.5-inch needle is expected to reach the deltoid in 76.7% of women greater than 200 pounds, and 75.0% of men greater than 260 pounds. Current CDC deltoid intramuscular injection needle length guidelines result in women and obese individuals being more likely to receive subcutaneous injections. Age and BMI based guidelines for needle length selection are more accurate.