Potential Ecological Distribution of the Beetle <i>Agrilus mali</i> Matsumura (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in China under Three Climate Change Scenarios, with Consequences for Commercial and Wild Apple Forests
Yanlong Zhang,
Hua Yang,
Aerguli Jiamahate,
Honglan Yang,
Liangming Cao,
Yingqiao Dang,
Zhaozhi Lu,
Zhongqi Yang,
Tohir A. Bozorov,
Xiaoyi Wang
Affiliations
Yanlong Zhang
Key Laboratory of Forest Protection of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
Hua Yang
College of Forestry, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Aerguli Jiamahate
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Honglan Yang
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Liangming Cao
Key Laboratory of Forest Protection of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
Yingqiao Dang
Key Laboratory of Forest Protection of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
Zhaozhi Lu
College of Plant Health and Medicine, Qingdao Agricultural University, Qingdao 266109, China
Zhongqi Yang
Key Laboratory of Forest Protection of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
Tohir A. Bozorov
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Xiaoyi Wang
Key Laboratory of Forest Protection of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
The apple jewel beetle (AJB), Agrilus mali Matsumura (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), is a dangerous pest of commercial apple orchards across China, the largest apple production country in the world, and has recently become invasive in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) of northwestern China, where wild apple forests also occur. This pest poses a serious threat to apple production and wild apple forests throughout the world. Global warming is expected to change the geographical distribution of A. mali in China, but the extent of this is unknown. Based on empirical data from 1951 to 2000, a MaxEnt model was used to forecast the ecological distribution of A. mali under three different climate scenarios projected in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The results showed that the most important variables were the maximum temperature of November, precipitation in January, and minimum temperatures in April. Under all climate scenarios, the forecasted suitable regions for A. mali in China will expand northward in the 2050s and 2070s. The forecasted highly suitable regions will be 1.11–1.34 times larger than they are currently, and their central distributions will be 61.57–167.59 km further north. These findings suggest that the range and damage caused by A. mali in China will increase dramatically in the future. Monitoring and management measures should be implemented urgently to protect both the commercial apple industry and wild apple resources.
