Open source modeling for planing sustainable power development in resource-rich economies: case study for Kazakhstan

Abstract

Power sector decarbonization is currently seen as a necessary condition of sustainable development in the modern world. options of resources-rich economies. Energy modeling is an effective measure to elaborate long-term decarbonisation policies. However, energy modeling evidence available for resources-rich economies remain up to the date limited, especially in part of realistic representation of the power system operation. We apply open code and open data approach to fill this gap considering a case study for Kazakhstan power system. The modeling input datasets have been validated against independent data sources with a satisfactory result. The simulation outputs are plausible both in terms reproducing the main features of the “pragmatic” scenario and in providing useful insights for the implementation of net-zero pathways. Renewable energy sources have been found to be economically viable even under the considered “pragmatic” scenario with quite conservative assumptions. Existing coal generation has been shown to dominate the investments costs hampering implementation of renewable power. A role of the power interconnection has been demonstrated for an economically optimal generation mix and a level of marginal electricity costs across the country. The results are intended to support energy transition implementation in the resources-rich economies under realistic technological assumptions.