Bayesian estimation of parameters in a SI mathematical model for the transmision dynamics of an infectious disease in Peru

Abstract

The objective of the research is to estimate the transmission rate of an infection (β) in the SI epidemical model, using Bayesian statistical methods from observed data in Peru. After studying the SI mathematical model and Bayesian statistical inference metho'ds, a Bayesian estimator is proposed to estimate the transmisión rate of an infection in this model and a procedure is proposed to estimate this rate using Montecarlo simulation based on Markov chains - MCMC.

Keywords

• ordinary differential equation
• multiple level
• stability
• si model
• montecarlo simulation
• bayesian estimator
• mcmc