Mathematical analysis and forecasting of the dynamics of air pollution by stationary sources in the Russian Federation

Abstract

Introduction. The article considers the dynamics of air pollution by stationary sources in the Russian Federation from 1998 to 2016. Harmful emissions into the atmosphere cause great harm to all living organisms. As a result, the life expectancy of the population is significantly reduced. Therefore, the assessment of pollution volumes and subsequent measures for the protection of atmospheric air are priority tasks of our time.Problem statement. The objectives of the study are to analyze the dynamics of pollution, build a mathematical model of this process, and implement a forecast for a five-year period.Theoretical part. Data for the work is taken from the official statistical book. Microsoft Excel and StatSoft Statistica computer technologies are used for calculations.Conclusion. Based on the analysis, an adequate mathematical model is constructed, which may be of interest for predicting the anthropogenic impact on the environment.

Keywords

• загрязнение атмосферы
• математическая модель
• метод наименьших квадратов
• прогнозирование