Future of myocardial infarction mortality in Iran: a scenario-based study

Abstract

Abstract This study defines futures myocardial infarction landscapes and proposes a few policy options to reduce the burden of cardiovascular diseases using the scenario development method. We identified the effective drivers of myocardial infarction by reviewing the literature and completed the returned list with “experts” opinions. The results were classified using the STEEP (Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, and Political) framework. We plotted the critical uncertainties in a two-dimensional ranking of “effect” and “uncertainty” levels. Eleven drivers with uncertainty and high potential impact were selected and categorized into three groups: Political Development, Access to health services, and Self-Care. Scenarios were developed, and 3 scenarios (optimistic, pessimistic, and possible) were selected based on scoring. For each scenario, policy options were formulated. Utilizing the capacity of Non-Governmental Organizations and charities and strengthening restrictive and punitive legislation was chosen as policy options for addressing possible scenarios. Building infrastructure and improving prevention services, designing and regenerating curative infrastructure were selected as optimal strategies for addressing issues related to the optimistic scenario. Strengthening restrictive and punitive legislation related to community health and population empowerment were proposed as critical policy options for health improvement regarding the pessimistic scenario. Increasing people’s participation, strengthening infrastructure and punitive policies can be effective in Myocardial infarction mortality prevention policies in Iran.

Keywords

• Futures study
• Myocardial infarction
• Non-communicable diseases
• Scenario development
• Policy option