Seismic risk for Croatia: overview of research activities and present assessments with guidelines for the future

Abstract

An overview of numerous methodologically different risk assessments, including sporadic individual initiatives, is presented from the perspective of a leading expert for earthquake risk assessments for Croatia. The aim of the paper is to evaluate and discuss contributions of each of the assessments, but also to caution about their deficiencies i.e. limitations. A common methodology for estimating seismic risk is described by analysing each of its factors, by providing an overview of current research in Croatia and worldwide, and by offering guidelines for further strategic actions, as all existing results reveal that earthquake is an unacceptable risk for Croatia.