Agricultural Trade Instability in Iran (1981-1999): A Decomposition of Coppock Instability Measure

Abstract

In this paper, we decompose multiplicatively indices of value instability of agricultural exportable and importable products into price instability, quantity instability, and interactive instability. Indices of Iran’s agricultural trade instability correspond to 26 exportable and 22 importable. The period of analysis runs from 1981-1999. The main results of this paper are: - Iran’s agricultural exports and imports both vary in degree of instability. - In the cases of several exportable and importable , quantity instability has been the determining factor of value instability - On the average, exports have been subject to relatively higher price and value instability than imports, but imports have been subject to higher quantity instability than exports. The study also makes some recommendations to reduce instabilities and to increase competitiveness in Iran.

Keywords

• coppock instability measure
• decomposition
• agricultural trade
• price instability
• quantity instability
• interactive instability
• competitiveness