Modeling climate variability and global sugarcane production: Empirical consideration for collective policy action

Abstract

The potential impacts of climate change and sugarcane production is well documented in the literature but majority of the studies have focused on models that look at national level impacts. This paper presents a global impact model on sugarcane production due to variations in temperature and rainfall with the intention to observe the collective challenges that sugarcane production is faced with across the world. The study conducted a trend analysis with time series data for sugarcane production, productivity per hectare of sugarcane lands, annual temperature and annual rainfall recorded for the top sugarcane exporters across the world. The study also developed a panel regression model to empirically establish the relationship between production levels and temperature and rainfall. The findings of the study showed that production levels are increasing in some countries while declining in others. Cyclical patterns of production was also observed that seem to vary with cyclical patterns of rainfall. The regression model showed a positive relationship between production and rainfall where a 1 % increase in rainfall can result in a 0.113 % increase in sugarcane production. The model also showed a negative relationship between production and temperature where a 1 % increase in temperature can result in a 0.176 % decrease in sugarcane production. The main conclusion drawn is that as global temperatures continue to increase, then there will be a global decline in the sugarcane industry. This global model for sugarcane and climate change is geared towards showing the collective impacts of climate change experienced by different countries and to encourage from an empirical standpoint, more collective policy actions to protect the industry as a global market.

Keywords

• Climate variability
• Sugarcane production
• Rainfall
• Temperature