The discounted value of human lives lost due to COVID-19 in France [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]

Abstract

Background: This study estimates the total discounted value of human lives lost (TDVHL) due to COVID-19 in France as of 14 September 2020. Methods: The human capital approach (HCA) model was used to estimate the TDVHL of the 30,916 human lives lost due to COVID-19 in France; i.e., assuming a discount rate of 3% and the national average life expectancy at birth of 83.13 years. To test the robustness of the estimated TDVHL, the model was rerun (a) using 5% and 10% discount rates, while holding the French average life expectancy constant; and (b) consecutively substituting national life expectancy with the world average life expectancy of 73.2 years and the world highest life expectancy of 88.17 years. Results: The human lives lost had a TDVHL of Int$10,492,290,194, and an average value of Int$339,381 per human life lost. Rerun of the HCA model with 5% and 10% discount rates decreased TDVHL by Int$1,304,764,602 (12.4%) and Int$3,506,938,312 (33%), respectively. Re-calculation of the model with the world average life expectancy decreased the TDVHL by Int$7,750,187,267 (73.87%). Contrastingly, re-estimation of the model with the world’s highest life expectancy augmented TDVHL by Int$3,744,263,463 (35.7%). Conclusions: The average discounted economic value per human life lost due to COVID-19 of Int$339,381 is 8-fold the France gross domestic product per person. Such evidence constitutes an additional argument for health policy makers when making a case for increased investment to optimise France’s International Health Regulation capacities and coverage of essential health services, and safely managed water and sanitation services.