Modeling of groundwater resources in Sirjan Basin using the dynamics systems method

Abstract

Due to the scarcity of surface water resources, groundwater plays an important role in human life, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. Since more than 60% of Iran is arid and semi-arid regions, the water supply in these areas, and especially the study area, depends on groundwater resources, so over-extraction of these valuable resources causes many crises. Therefore, modeling of these sources was considered by many researchers as well as the present study. This study tries to evaluate the stability of the aquifer in the future. Also, investigate the factors affecting the instability of groundwater resources in the study area. For this purpose, the study area was modeled using the dynamics method of systems, resources, and water consumption. Then, the results of model validation were presented using limit condition tests and sensitivity analysis. After determining the degree of reliability of the model, the scenarios were explained and the model was implemented to predict the groundwater level in the coming years. In the end, the sustainability index was calculated in each scenario, to examine the status of water sustainability in the coming years. The results of limit condition tests and sensitivity analysis showed that the model was in good agreement with reality. Also, after applying the scenarios, the results showed that the aquifer will become more unstable as the current situation continues. Agricultural consumption is one of the variables affecting the resource and consumption model, so by reducing this variable, the amount of sustainability will improve.

Keywords

• system dynamics
• sustainable development
• modeling
• water resources management
• sirjan basin