Predictors of Mortality Among Children with Confirmed and Suspected Cases of COVID-19 in East Java, Indonesia

Abstract

Ferry Efendi,1 Joni Haryanto,1 Eka Mishbahatul Mar’ah Has,1 Makhfudli Makhfudli,1 Retno Indarwati,1 Heri Kuswanto,2 Joni Wahyuhadi,3,4 Makhyan Jibril Al Farabi,4,5 Ken Hok Man Ho,6 Ika Adelia Susanti7 1Faculty of Nursing, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya, Indonesia; 2Department of Statistics, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya, Indonesia; 3Department of Neurosurgery, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya, Indonesia; 4Dr. Soetomo General Hospital, Surabaya, Indonesia; 5Department of Cardiology and Vascular Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya, Indonesia; 6Nethersole School of Nursing, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, Hong Kong; 7Faculty of Health Science, Universitas dr. Soebandi, Jember, IndonesiaCorrespondence: Ferry Efendi, Email [email protected]: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) increases rapidly and causes mortality in all groups, including children. However, the predictive risk factors of mortality among children remain inconclusive. This study aimed to analyse the predictors related to mortality among children with COVID-19.Methods: Secondary data analysis was conducted using provincial COVID-19 data from April 2020 to May 2021. We selected 6441 children under age 18 to be included in this study. Chi-square and binary logistic regression were used to evaluate the predictors of mortality in children with COVID-19.Results: This study showed that the prevalence of children who died COVID-19 was 2.7%. Age, case definition, treatment status, severity of illness, and travel history had a significant relationship with survival status in children with COVID-19. As the increasing age, the risk of death with COVID-19 will decrease [AOR=0.94; CI 95%=0.91– 0.97]. Otherwise, suspected status [AOR=2.12; 95% CI=1.48– 3.04], hospitalization with ventilators [AOR=22.25; 95% CI=5.73– 86.42], severe illness [AOR=46.76; 95% CI=21.69– 100.80], and travel history [AOR=1.78; 95% CI=1.22– 2.60] were significantly related with an increased risk of death in children with COVID-19.Discussion: Severe illness in children was the strongest predictor of mortality. Disease prevention and health promotion programs are the key to preventing hospitalizations in children and decreasing the mortality rate.Keywords: child health, COVID-19, child mortality

Keywords

• child health
• covid-19
• child mortality