Caries in primary molars of 6–7-year-old Turkish children as risk indicators for future caries development in permanent molars

Abstract

The aim of the present study was to investigate whether caries existence in the primary dentition at the age of 6-7 years can serve as a test to predict subsequent caries in the permanent first molars. Clinical examinations were carried out in suboptimal conditions of a school-based screening, where non-cavitated enamel caries could not be recorded. Materials and methods: Caries were recorded at baseline and 4 years later in 286 Turkish children aged 6-7 years old. Spearman's correlation coefficients between variables of the caries experience of the primary dentition at the age of 6-7 years and caries in the permanent first molars at the age of 10-11 years were calculated. The area under the ROC curve was used as a measure of predictive accuracy. Results: Caries experience of the primary dentition (dmft), primary molars (dmft molars), and primary second molars (dmft 2nd molars) showed a statistically significant correlation with caries (DMFT) 4 years later in the permanent first molars. Among the variables, the caries experience of the primary second molars was the most powerful caries predictor, which resulted in a value of 0.69 under the ROC curve. Conclusion: With the selection criterion “dmft2ndmolars = 0” in this low-caries-incidence pediatric population, it was possible to identify children truly negative for misclassification.

Keywords

• caries prediction
• caries risk assessment
• primary dentition