Determinants of small-scale fisheries’ transformative responses under increasing climate change impacts in Nayarit, Mexico

Abstract

Progressive climate-driven environmental changes are and will increasingly be threatening the livelihoods and food security of coastal communities worldwide. This study, conducted in the climate change hotspot of Nayarit, Mexico, analyzes data collected through face-to-face interviews with 437 small-scale commercial fishers. We examine the factors influencing fishers’ transformative behavior, focusing on two main responses: changing the main livelihood and completely exiting the fisheries; each assessed on two hypothetical scenarios of 50% and 75% sustained catch decrease, directly coupled with the respective economic loss. Under a 50% catch decrease scenario, 35% decided to look for a new main livelihood while 15% considered exiting small-scale fisheries (SSF). These percentages increased under the 75% scenario, with 52% opting to seek a new main livelihood and 32% contemplating exiting. Through a mixed effects survival Cox model, our findings reveal that the social organization of the system, driven by the uneven access to permits, strongly affects fishers’ decision to adopt transformative responses. In such situations, fishing cooperatives and patron-client relationships facilitated transitions into a new main livelihood and exiting the fishery under large impact scenarios. These results highlight the importance of social capital and how the management systems in place can impact fishers’ resilience to climate change. Our novel study illustrates the usefulness of survival analysis in climate change adaptation.

Keywords

• adaptive capacity
• climate hotspot
• exit fisheries
• livelihood diversification
• power relations survival analysis