Heterogeneous global health stock and growth: quantitative evidence from 140 countries, 1990–2100

Abstract

Abstract Background In the prevailing economic perspective, health is viewed as a type of capital stock that yields ‘healthy days’ in human society. However, evaluations of this health capital stock are still limited to specific contexts. The primary aim of this study is to measure and forecast the global health stocks in 140 countries from 1990 to 2100. Methods The health capital stock in each country from 1990 to 2015 was estimated using a capital approach. The future health stocks between 2016 and 2100 were forecast using a time-series model. Results Based on the health stocks from 1990 to 2015, low-income countries have much larger and more rapidly growing health stocks. In the long-term, to 2100, upper-middle income countries, particularly countries in the Middle East and North Africa, exhibit great growth that benefits from the peaks in their youth or working-age populations. Immigration also contributes to health stock growth, as do other factors, e.g., the fertility rate, population ageing, and working-age and youth populations. Conclusions Health stock is a vital component of global sustainable development that should be consistently included as a stock-based sustainability index in the evaluations of other capital to accurately measure national wealth and sustainability.

Keywords

• Sustainable development
• Health stock
• Health forecasting
• Time series