A Machine Learning Pipeline to Forecast the Electricity and Heat Consumption in a City District

Abstract

The shift towards renewable energy integration into smart grids has led to complex management processes, which require finer-grained energy and heat generation/ demand forecasting while considering data from monitoring devices and the integration of smaller multi-energy sub-systems at the community, district, or buildings level. However, energy prediction is challenging due to the high variability in the electrical and thermal energy demands of building occupants, the heterogenous characteristics of the energy assets or buildings in a district, and the length of the forecasting horizon. In this paper, we define a data-driven machine-learning pipeline to predict the electricity and thermal consumption of buildings and energy assets from a city district in 24 h intervals. Each pipeline’s step is divided into sensors’ data processing and model integration, data enrichment and features engineering, and multilayer perceptron model training. To address some of the drawbacks of using the multi-layer perceptron model, such as slow convergence rate and risk of overfitting, and to ensure a lower error in the energy prediction process features, an engineering technique was employed. We incorporated weather data features and interaction features derived from fusing the energy data with statistical models to capture the nonlinear patterns of the electrical and heat demands. The proposed approach was successfully validated in a real-world environment, a city district in Gent, Belgium. It featured good prediction results for electricity and heat production and consumption of various assets without considering the physical characteristics, making it viable and easily applicable in broader urban areas. The evaluation of energy prediction accuracy yielded good results, with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) falling within the range of 0.003 to 3.27, and a Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) ranging from 7 × 10−5 to 2.57 × 10−3.

Keywords

• machine learning pipeline
• energy prediction
• heat demand prediction
• multilayer perceptron
• data enrichment
• features engineering