Evaluating MPAS-A Performance for Mesoscale Simulation in a Tropical Region: A Case Study of Extreme Heat in Jakarta, Indonesia

Abstract

The Model for Prediction Across Scales–Atmosphere (MPAS-A) has been widely used for larger scale simulations, but its performance in mesoscale, particularly in tropical regions, is less evaluated. This study aimed to assess MPAS-A in simulating extreme surface air temperature in Jakarta during the hot spells of October 2023 with eight different simulation setups. Several validation metrics were applied to near-surface meteorological variables, land surface temperature (LST), and vertical atmospheric profile. From the eight simulations, MPAS-A captured diurnal patterns of the near-surface variables well, except for wind direction. The model also performed well in LST simulations. Moreover, the biases in the vertical profiles varied with height and were sensitive to the initial/boundary conditions used. Simulations with modified terrestrial datasets showed higher LST and air temperatures over the sprawling urban areas. MPAS-A successfully simulated the extreme event, showing higher air temperatures in southern Jakarta (over 36 °C) compared to the northern part. Negative temperature advection by sea breeze helped lower air temperature in the northern area. This study highlights the role of sea breezes as natural cooling mechanisms in coastal cities. Additionally, MPAS-A is feasible for several applications for urban climate studies and climate projection, although further development is needed.

Keywords

• extreme hot weather
• Jakarta
• mesoscale
• MPAS-A
• numerical simulation