Impacts of the war on prices of Ukrainian wheat

Abstract

The Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict significantly affected wheat production and its export from Ukraine, mainly during the war outbreak. Since both countries rank among the major global wheat producers, the warfare disrupted wheat supplies, hastily pushing the prices. Based on the analysed data, we carried out research using multilayer perceptron networks. The findings suggest the biggest price increase between February and March 2022, witnessing wheat prices at about 1 400 USD per t. We predict a decline to the pre-war values until the end of 2025, estimating its rates between 600 USD and 800 USD per t. This price slump may involve signing an agreement on unblocking Ukrainian seaports, which would restore wheat exports. Yet, our survey is confined to historical data, which do not suggest any dramatic event that would alarmingly sway wheat prices.

Keywords

• correlation analysis
• regression
• ukraine
• war conflict
• wheat price