Modeling climate change impacts on crop water demand, middle Awash River basin, case study of Berehet woreda

Abstract

Climate change mainly affects crops via impacting evapotranspiration. This study quantifies climate change impacts on evapotranspiration, crop water requirement, and irrigation water demand. Seventeen GCMs from the MarkSim-GCM were used for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for future projection. A soil sample was collected from 15 points from the maize production area. Based on USDA soil textural classification, the soil is classified as silt loam (higher class), clay loam (middle class), and clay loam (lower class). The crop growing season onset and offset were determined using the Markov chain model and compared with the farmer's indigenous experience. The main rainy season (Kiremt) starts during the 1st meteorological decade of June for baseline period and 2nd decade to 3rd decade of June for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of near (2020s) and mid (2050s) future period. The offset date is in the range of 270 (base period), RCP 4.5 (278, 284), and RCP 8.5 (281, 274) DOY for baseline, near, and mid future. The rainfall and temperature change show an increasing pattern from the base period under both scenarios. Furthermore, the reference evapotranspiration (ETo) estimating model was developed using multiple variable regression and used for a future period in this study. In the base period, ETo increases from 33.4 mm/dec in the 1st decade of July to the peak value of 52.1 mm/dec in the 3rd decade of May. Under RCP8 .5, the 2nd decade of August ETO is minimal (44.3 mm/dec), while in 1st decade of April ETO was maximum (75.3 mm/dec) and raise from 44.3 mm/dec in the 2nd decade of August to the peak value of 75.3 mm/dec in the 1st decade of April. Under RCP 4.5, ETO raises from 33 mm/dec in the 1st decade of Dec to the peak value of 48 mm/dec in the 3rd decade of May. ETo shows an increasing trend from the base period under both scenarios. During the base period, a maize variety with a growing period of 110 days required 403.2 mm depth of water, while 67 mm is required as supplementary irrigation. Crop water and irrigation requirements of the maize variety with a growing period of 110 days are predicted to be 436.1 and 445.1 mm water during the 2020 and 2050 s for RCP 4.5, while 101.8 to 63.7 mm depth of water as supplementary irrigation respectively and 441.3 and 447.3 mm of water during 2020 and 2050 s of the future period for RCP 8.5, while 142.9 to 134.0 mm required as supplementary irrigation for both periods of RCP 8.5 scenarios. Crop water need will increase by 8.16 and 10.39% for RCP 4.5 and by 9.45 and 10.94% for RCP 8.5 of the 2020 and 2050 s respectively. In this study, a new ETO model is developed using a multiple variable linear regression model and its degree of the fitting is statistically tested and Kc is adjusted for the local climate, and hence, can be used in future irrigation and related studies. Generally, decision-makers, farmers, Irrigation engineers, and other stakeholders can use the results of this study in irrigation design, monitoring, scheduling, and other related activities. Highlights The crop growing season onset and offset were determined using the Markov chain model and compared with the farmer's indigenous experience.; The rainfall and temperature change show an increasing pattern from the base period under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios.; Reference evapotranspiration shows an increasing trend from the base period (1984-2013) under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios.; Crop water need will increase by 8.16 and 10.39% for RCP 4.5 and by 9.45 and 10.94% for RCP 8.5 of the 2020s and 2050s respectively.; A new reference evapotranspiration model is developed using a multiple variable linear regression model, its degree of the fitting is statistically tested and Kc is adjusted for the local climate; hence, it can be used in future irrigation and related studies.;

Keywords

• climate change
• crop water
• evapotranspiration
• irrigation
• middle awash basin