A Comprehensive Comparison of Stable and Unstable Area Sampling Strategies in Large-Scale Landslide Susceptibility Models Using Machine Learning Methods

Abstract

This paper focuses on large-scale landslide susceptibility modelling in NW Croatia. The objective of this research was to provide new insight into stable and unstable area sampling strategies on a representative inventory of small and shallow landslides mainly occurring in soil and soft rock. Four strategies were tested for stable area sampling (random points, stable area polygon, stable polygon buffering and stable area centroid) in combination with four strategies for unstable area sampling (landslide polygon, smoothing digital terrain model derived landslide conditioning factors, polygon buffering and landslide centroid), resulting in eight sampling scenarios. Using Logistic Regression, Neural Network, Random Forest and Support Vector Machine algorithm, 32 models were derived and analysed. The main conclusions reveal that polygon sampling of unstable areas is an imperative in large-scale modelling, as well as that subjective and/or biased stable area sampling leads to misleading models. Moreover, Random Forest and Neural Network proved to be more favourable methods (0.804 and 0.805 AUC, respectively), but also showed extreme sensitivity to the tested sampling strategies. In the comprehensive comparison, the advantages and disadvantages of 32 derived models were analysed through quantitative and qualitative parameters to highlight their application to large-scale landslide zonation. The results yielded by this research are beneficial to the susceptibility modelling step in large-scale landslide susceptibility assessments as they enable the derivation of more reliable zonation maps applicable to spatial and urban planning systems.

Keywords

• landslide susceptibility
• sampling strategy
• large scale
• machine learning
• remote sensing
• Croatia