Global trends and partial forecast of adverse effects of medical treatment from 1990 to 2019: an epidemiological analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2019

Abstract

Abstract Background The possibility of adverse effects of medical treatment (AEMT) is increasing worldwide, but little is known about AEMT in China. This study analyzed the health burden of AEMT in China in recent years through the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 and compared it with the worldwide average level and those in different sociodemographic index (SDI) regions. Methods We calculated the age-standardized rate (ASR) of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), incidence and prevalence attributed to AEMT in China, worldwide and countries with different sociodemographic indices during 1990–2019 using the latest data and methods from the GBD 2019. Results From 1990 to 2019, the global age-standardized death rate (ASDR), DALYs, and YLLs for AEMT showed a significant downward trend and were negatively associated with the SDI. By 2040, the ASDR is expected to reach approximately 1.58 (95% UI: 1.33–1.80). From 1990 to 2019, there was no significant change in the global incidence of AEMT. The occurrence of AEMT was related to sex, and the incidence of AEMT was greater among females. In addition, the incidence of AEMT-related injuries and burdens, such as ASR of DALYs, ASR of YLLs and ASR of YLDs, was greater among women than among men. Very old and very young people were more likely to be exposed to AEMT. Conclusions From 1990 to 2019, progress was made worldwide in reducing the harm caused by AEMT. However, the incidence and prevalence of AEMT did not change significantly overall during this period. Therefore, the health sector should pay more attention to AEMT and take effective measures to reduce AEMT.

Keywords

• Adverse effects of medical treatment
• Medical errors
• Patient safety
• Health care system
• Global burden of Disease