The potential of global coastal flood risk reduction using various DRR measures

Abstract

Coastal flood risk is a serious global challenge facing current and future generations. Several disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures have been posited as ways to reduce the deleterious impacts of coastal flooding. On a global scale, however, efforts to model the future effects of DRR measures (beyond structural) are limited. In this paper, we use a global-scale flood risk model to estimate the risk of coastal flooding and to assess and compare the efficacy and economic performance of various DRR measures, namely dykes and coastal levees, dry-proofing of urban assets, zoning restrictions in flood-prone areas, and management of foreshore vegetation. To assess the efficacy of each DRR measure, we determine the extent to which it can limit future flood risk as a percentage of regional GDP to the same proportional value as today (a “relative risk constant” objective). To assess their economic performance, we estimate the economic benefits and costs of implementing each measure. If no DRR measures are implemented to mitigate future coastal flood risk, we estimate expected annual damages to exceed USD 1.3 trillion by 2080, directly affecting an estimated 11.5 million people on an annual basis. Low- and high-end scenarios reveal large ranges of impact uncertainty, especially in lower-income regions. On a global scale, we find the efficacy of dykes and coastal levees in achieving the relative risk constant objective to be 98 %, of dry-proofing to be 49 %, of zoning restrictions to be 11 %, and of foreshore vegetation to be 6 %. In terms of direct costs, the overall figure is largest for dry-proofing (USD 151 billion) and dykes and coastal levees (USD 86 billion), much more than those of zoning restrictions (USD 27 million) and foreshore vegetation (USD 366 million). These two more expensive DRR measures also exhibit the largest potential range of direct costs. While zoning restrictions and foreshore vegetation achieve the highest global benefit–cost ratios (BCRs), they also provide the smallest magnitude of overall benefit. We show that there are large regional patterns in both the efficacy and economic performance of modelled DRR measures that display much potential for flood risk reduction, especially in regions of the world that are projected to experience large amounts of population growth. Over 90 % of sub-national regions in the world can achieve their relative risk constant targets if at least one of the investigated DRR measures is employed. While future research could assess the indirect costs and benefits of these four and other DRR measures, as well as their subsequent hybridization, here we demonstrate to global and regional decision makers the case for investing in DRR now to mitigate future coastal flood risk.