Application of Hybrid ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network Modelling for Electromagnetic Propagation: An Alternative to the Least Squares Method and ITU Recommendation P.1546-5 for Amazon Urbanized Cities

Abstract

This study sets out an empirical hybrid autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN) model designed to estimate electromagnetic wave propagation in densely forested urban areas. Received signal power intensity data was acquired through measurement campaigns carried out in the Metropolitan Area of Belém (MAB), in the Brazilian Amazon. Comparisons were made between estimates from classical least squares (LS) fitting and ITU (International Telecommunication Union) recommendation P. 1546-5. The results indicate the model is, at least, 44% more precise than every ITU estimate and, in some situations, is at least 11% better than an LS estimate, depending on the respective values of the relative error (RE).