Land (Sep 2024)
Measuring Change in Urban Land Consumption: A Global Analysis
Abstract
An issue of concern in landscape and urban planning, articulated in the United Nation’s (UN’s) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), is the increase in urban land consumption over time. Indicator 11.3.1 of the SDGs is dedicated to measuring it, underlining the importance of decreasing urban land consumption per person, a strategy that is understood to contribute positively to climate mitigation and to a host of other social, economic, and environmental objectives. This article aims to explore the practical implications of the official methods for measuring Indicator 11.3.1, as well as two alternatives, and to calculate and compare the global and regional trends of these indicators for the 2000–2020 period for a universe of 3470 cities and metropolitan areas that had 100,000 people or more in the year 2020. Built-up area and population data for this universe were obtained from the Global Human Settlements Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP) published by the European Commission. We applied methods adapted from New York University’s Atlas of Urban Expansion to map the urban extents of all cities in 2000 and 2020, and then we used these urban extents, the built-up areas, and population estimates within them to calculate values for Indicator 11.3.1 and for two alternative indicators for the 2000–2020 period. We found that the current definition of Indicator 11.3.1 of the SDGs—“Ratio of land consumption rate to population growth rate”—has significant limitations in conveying meaningful information and interpretability for practical applications. We suggest two alternative indicators that address these shortcomings: the rate of change of land consumption per person and the rate of density change. Our analysis found that, for the world at large, urban densities declined at an annual rate of 0.5–0.7% between 2000 and 2020, with significant variation in the direction and magnitude of density trends by world region. Additionally, we found density declines to be faster in smaller cities than in larger ones and faster in cities with slower population growth or population declines compared to those with more rapid population growth.
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