Examining the Impact of China’s Corruption Crackdown: A Forecast for Macau’s Tourism and Gaming Industry

Abstract

Using the ARIMA time-series analysis technique, this study measured the impact China’s anti-corruption campaign had on Macau’s casino gaming industry and forecasted future gaming revenue. This study also analyzed current trends and proposed future strategies for the Macau tourism and gaming industry. The results suggest China’s anti-corruption campaign did not significantly affect Macau’s non-VIP gaming revenue. Instead, the campaign has triggered positive changes for Macau’s tourism and gaming industry by transforming it from an unbalanced development model relying solely on VIP business to a diversified healthy development, which would potentially bring positive impact to Macau’s overall economy in the future. The findings of this study echo the revisions of gaming laws proposed by the Macau Special Administrative Region Government in September 2021 and provide new insights into the impact of the anti-corruption policy with focus on the outlook of Macau’s tourism and gaming industry.

Keywords

• anti-corruption
• casino
• China
• gaming
• time series
• tourism