Ensemble Forecasting Frame Based on Deep Learning and Multi-Objective Optimization for Planning Solar Energy Management: A Case Study

Abstract

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There are many prediction models that have been adopted to predict uncertain and non-linear photovoltaic power time series. Nonetheless, most models neglected the validity of data preprocessing and ensemble learning strategies, which leads to low forecasting precision and low stability of photovoltaic power. To effectively enhance photovoltaic power forecasting accuracy and stability, an ensemble forecasting frame based on the data pretreatment technology, multi-objective optimization algorithm, statistical method, and deep learning methods is developed. The proposed forecasting frame successfully integrates the advantages of multiple algorithms and validly depict the linear and nonlinear characteristic of photovoltaic power time series, which is conductive to achieving accurate and stable photovoltaic power forecasting results. Three datasets of 15-min photovoltaic power output data obtained from different time periods in Belgium were employed to verify the validity of the proposed system. The simulation results prove that the proposed forecasting frame positively surpasses all comparative hybrid models, ensemble models, and classical models in terms of prediction accuracy and stabilization. For one-, two-, and three-step predictions, the MAPE values obtained from the proposed frame were less than 2, 3, and 5%, respectively. Discussion results also verify that the proposed forecasting frame is obviously different from other comparative models, and is more stable and high-efficiency. Thus, the proposed frame is highly serviceable in elevating photovoltaic power forecasting performance and can be used as an efficient instrument for intelligent grid programming.

Keywords

• artificial intelligence
• ensemble forecasting system
• photovoltaic power forecasting
• renewable energy management
• smart grid management