Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges

Guan Jinxing; Zhao Yang; Wei Yongyue; Shen Sipeng; You Dongfang; Zhang Ruyang; Lange Theis; Chen Feng

doi:10.1515/mr-2021-0022

Medical Review (Feb 2022)

Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges

Guan Jinxing,
Zhao Yang,
Wei Yongyue,
Shen Sipeng,
You Dongfang,
Zhang Ruyang,
Lange Theis,
Chen Feng

Affiliations

Guan Jinxing: Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
Zhao Yang: Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
Wei Yongyue: Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
Shen Sipeng: Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
You Dongfang: Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
Zhang Ruyang: Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
Lange Theis: Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
Chen Feng: Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/mr-2021-0022
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 2, no. 1
pp. 89 – 109

Abstract

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Since late 2019, the beginning of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, transmission dynamics models have achieved great development and were widely used in predicting and policy making. Here, we provided an introduction to the history of disease transmission, summarized transmission dynamics models into three main types: compartment extension, parameter extension and population-stratified extension models, highlight the key contribution of transmission dynamics models in COVID-19 pandemic: estimating epidemiological parameters, predicting the future trend, evaluating the effectiveness of control measures and exploring different possibilities/scenarios. Finally, we pointed out the limitations and challenges lie ahead of transmission dynamics models.

Published in Medical Review

ISSN: 2097-0773 (Print); 2749-9642 (Online)
Publisher: De Gruyter
Country of publisher: Germany
LCC subjects: Medicine
Website: https://www.degruyter.com/journal/key/mr/html

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