The Short-Term Outcome and Risk Factors Associated with the Outcome of Severe Covid-19 Disease – Retrospective Evaluation of Single-Centre Experiences from the Second Covid-19 Wave in Sri Lanka

Abstract

Background: Prognostic data related to the Covid-19 is lacking for Sri Lankans, and for high-risk cohorts worldwide. Objectives: To describe the short-term outcomes and risk factors related to severe and fatal Covid-19 disease in a high-risk symptomatic cohort with coexisting disease conditions. Methods: The single-center retrospective study assessed 300 symptomatic Covid-19 infected adults admitted to Base-Hospital Homagama, Sri Lanka, from December 2020 to February 2021. Results: The patients mean age (SD) was 58 (15) years, with 47% of them being men. At least one comorbidity was present in 84.3%, hypertension in 57.1% and diabetes in 53.8%. Overall, 24.3% had severe disease, 18.3% succumbed and 14.3% were managed in an ICU. Severe disease was more common among males (60.3%) than females (39.7%). Case severity (diabetes: χ2 = 4.838; p = 0.028; CKD: χ2 = 9.459; p = 0.002) and case fatality (diabetes: χ2 = 4.838; p = 0.028); CKD: χ2 = 9.459; p = 0.002) had a significant association with co-existing diabetes or chronic kidney disease (CKD). Predictors for severe disease include male gender (OR:2.292; 95%CI:1.228–4.279), low oxygen saturation (OR:2.436; 95%CI:1.304–4.552), and presence of comorbidity (OR:4.886; 95%CI:1.352–17.652). Predictors of the fatal disease include low oxygen saturation (OR:4.182; 95%CI:1.971–8.872) and the presence of comorbidity (OR:9.352; 95%CI:1.160–75.371). Conclusion: Covid-19 infected adults who are having coexisting non-communicable diseases are more vulnerable to getting severe and fatal infections. And knowledge of vulnerable groups will help in developing new strategies to mitigate the effects of this pandemic.

Keywords

• covid-19
• risk factors
• severe infection
• mortality
• comorbidity