Spatial modeling, prediction and seasonal variation of malaria in northwest Ethiopia

Abstract

Abstract Objectives The aim of this study was to determine the spatial modeling, seasonal variation of malaria and making prediction map of malaria in northwest Ethiopia. Results The overall average cumulative annual malaria incidence during the study period was 30 per 100 populations at risk. The highest proportion (29.2%) was observed from June 2015 to October 2016. In temporal analysis of clusters, the epidemic was observed from 2015/7/1 to 2016/12/31 throughout the study period in all districts. Hotspot areas with high clusters (p 50%) was seen in the southwest part of the region. Most of the northern part of the study area was predicted to have a low median incidence proportion (< 10%).

Keywords

• Spatial analysis
• Interpolation
• Bayesian kriging
• Clustering
• Geostatistics modeling