Forecasting of socio-economic phenomena as the instrument for managerial decision substantiation

Abstract

The article is devoted to the definition of the role of forecasting in the enterprise’s management. It is determined that forecasting forms the information basis for managerial decisions substantiation, as it provides prediction of the future state of the enterprise and its functioning environment. The essence and role of forecasting in the process of economic decision substantiation are determined. It is proposed to define forecasting as the process of scientifically grounded prediction of the future, which is characterized by a certain degree of probability and uncertainty and forms an information basis for making managerial decisions. The consequences of economic phenomena and processes, the timeliness of phenomena and processes, time series (the series of dynamics of phenomena) can be objects of forecasting. It is established that the forecasting at the enterprise provides realization of functions of scientific analysis of the internal and external environment, the identification of causal relationships, the formation of alternative scenarios for the situation development, the formation of an information basis for managerial decisions. The accuracy and relevance of the forecasts formed depend on understanding the nature of the phenomena and factors influencing upon them, the availability and adequacy of the information, the possibility of the influence of the forecasts formed on the forecasting object. The main principles of forecasting are distinguished; they include the principles of variability, system character, validity, adaptability, the principle of the forecasting matching its purpose, the principle of taking into account the limiting possibilities of forecasting, the principles of information unity, certainty in time, continuity. The main groups of forecasting methods, namely qualitative, quantitative and causal, are considered. It is found out that the organization of socio-economic phenomenon and process forecasting involves the formation of the appropriate subsystem of support. It is proposed to include to the support subsystem such components as information, normative, personnel, software and financial.

Keywords

• forecasting
• forecasting principles
• forecasting methods
• support subsystem
• managerial decisions
• substantiation