Sensitivity analysis of potential evapotranspiration to key climatic factors in the Shiyang River Basin

Abstract

This paper focuses on determining the spatial and temporal characteristics of the sensitivity coefficients (SCs) between potential evapotranspiration (ET0) and key climatic factors across the Shiyang River Basin (SYRB) from 1981 to 2015. Penman–Monteith equation and a sensitivity analysis were used to calculate ET0 and the SCs for key climatic factors. Sen's slope was used to analyze the observed series. According to the results, the sensitivity significances were in the order of relative humidity (RH) > net solar radiation (NSR) > wind speed (WS) > maximum air temperature (Tmax) > minimum air temperature (Tmin). The SCs for the RH and NSR were larger in the upper mountainous region, while the other three coefficients were larger in the middle and lower reaches. All five climatic factors for the ET0 SCs showed increasing trends in the mountainous region, and the Tmax, WS and RH SCs increased in the middle and lower reaches. Over the past 35 years, the change in ET0 was dominated by the air temperature (T), RH and NSR, and the increase in ET0 during the studied period was mainly due to the increases in T and NSR. HIGHLIGHTS Determined the spatial and temporal characteristics of the sensitivity coefficients between ET0 and key climatic factors across the SYRB.; Explored the causes of ET0 changes and their responses to climate change in the SYRB.; Quantified the contribution rate of each climatic element to ET0 in the SYRB from 1981 to 2015.;

Keywords

• et0 (evapotranspiration)
• p-m (penman–monteith) equation
• sensitivity analysis
• shiyang river basin