Discrete Homogeneous and Non-Homogeneous Markov Chains Enhance Predictive Modelling for Dairy Cow Diseases

Abstract

Modelling and predicting dairy cow diseases empowers farmers with valuable information for herd health management, thereby decreasing costs and increasing profits. For this purpose, predictive models were developed based on machine learning algorithms. However, machine-learning based approaches require the development of a specific model for each disease, and their consistency is limited by low farm data availability. To overcome this lack of complete and accurate data, we developed a predictive model based on discrete Homogeneous and Non-homogeneous Markov chains. After aggregating data into categories, we developed a method for defining the adequate number of Markov chain states. Subsequently, we selected the best prediction model through Chebyshev distance minimization. For 14 of 19 diseases, less than 15% maximum differences were measured between the last month of actual and predicted disease data. This model can be easily implemented in low-tech dairy farms to project costs with antibiotics and other treatments. Furthermore, the model’s adaptability allows it to be extended to other disease types or conditions with minimal adjustments. Therefore, including this predictive model for dairy cow diseases in decision support systems may enhance herd health management and streamline the design of evidence-based farming strategies.

Keywords

• dairy cows
• herd health status
• dairy diseases
• Markov chains
• predictive model
• decision support systems