BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE ANALYSIS OF MONETARY POLICY IMPACT ON RUSSIAN MACROECONOMICS INDICATORS

Abstract

In this paper the interaction between the production macroeconomic indicators of the Russian economy and MIBOR (the main operational benchmark of the Bank of Russia), as well as the relationship between the inflation indicators and money supply were investigated with Bayesian approach. Conjugate Normal Inverse Wishart Prior was used. According to the study, tough monetary policy has a deterrent effect on the Russian economy. The growth of the money market rate causes a reduction in investments and output in the main sectors of the economy, as well as a drop in the income of the population with an increase in the unemployment rate.

Keywords

• макроэкономика
• монетарная политика
• ставка денежного рынка MIBOR
• BVAR
• байесовская векторная авторегрессия
• macroeconomics
• monetary policy
• MIBOR
• BVAR
• Bayesian methods