Validation of the RIETE, Kuijer, and HAS-BLED Models to Assess 3-Month Bleeding Risk in Anticoagulated Patients Diagnosed with Venous Thromboembolic Disease

Abstract

Objective To evaluate the discriminative ability and calibration of the RIETE, Kuijer, and HAS-BLED models for predicting 3-month bleeding risk in patients anticoagulated for venous thromboembolism (VTE). Methods External validation study of a prediction model based on a retrospective cohort of patients with VTE seen at the Hospital Universitario San Ignacio, Bogotá (Colombia) between July 2021 and June 2023. The calibration of the scales was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and the ratio of observed to expected events (ROE) within each risk category. Discriminatory ability was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) of a ROC curve. Results We analyzed 470 patients (median age 65 years, female sex 59.3%) with a diagnosis of deep vein thrombosis in most cases (57.4%), 5.7% bleeding events were observed. Regarding calibration, adequate calibration cannot be ruled out given the limited number of events. The discriminatory ability was limited with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.48 (CI 0.37–0.59) for Kuijer Score, 0.58 (CI 0.47–0.70) for HAS-BLED and 0.64 (CI 0.51–0.76) for RIETE. Conclusion The Kuijer, HAS-BLED, and RIETE models in patients with VTE generally do not adequately estimate the risk of bleeding at three months, with a low ability to discriminate high-risk patients. Cautious interpretation is recommended until further evidence is available.