Precipitation Variability and Probabilities of Extreme Events in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (Latakia Governorate-Syria as a Case Study)

Abstract

This study aimed at analysis of the general-index change for the mean annual and seasonal precipitation in six stations in Latakia Governorate (Syria). The data of precipitation were collected for 40 consecutive years (1970–2010) in order to figure out the extent of the changes and variability in precipitation rates and the impact of this change on changes in the potential density that might cause extremely high or low precipitation rates according to Gumbel distribution of the extreme precipitation rates. Results revealed a decrease of the annual precipitation rates in all stations, the reduction in precipitation ranged from 46 to 210 mm during the whole period of the study. Spring, however, recorded the highest and statistically significant reduction, which reached 46–210 mm, while winter precipitation increased by 21–82 mm. Spring also has witnessed a decrease of about 3–9% of the total annual precipitation as compared to winter precipitation which increased by 5–8% of the total. The potential density of extremely high winter precipitation rates increased in all stations as indicated from Gumbel distribution in winter, and a greater increase took place in the probabilities of occurrence of the extremely low spring precipitation rates. This shows significant probability of occurrence of drought during spring season. By contrast, probabilities of winter precipitation rates increased more, thus winter is relatively more humid than before and spring is relatively drier than before.

Keywords

• climate change
• Gumbel distribution
• extreme precipitation
• Latakia
• probability of occurrence
• eastern Mediterranean