Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of population shrinkage in specialized villages in Henan Province

Abstract

[Objective] Specialized villages, as an important driving force for rural revitalization, have encountered the challenge of population shrinkage in recent years. Given that population plays a crucial role in influencing the development of specialized villages, it is necessary to thoroughly investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of population shrinkage and the influencing factors. [Methods] The population shrinkage model was used to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics of population shrinkage in 50 specialized villages in Henan Province from 2008 to 2017, and geographic detectors were used to identify the spatial influences on specialized village population shrinkage. [Results] (1) From 2008 to 2017, severely shrinking and non-shrinking specialized villages in Henan Province accounted for 42% and 46% of the total number of specialized villages respectively, and the polarization characteristics of population changes were significant; and the types of specialized villages with severe labor force shrinkage are, in descending order, industrial type, agricultural type, and service type. (2) The spatial proximity effect of the population shrinkage of specialized villages is significant, the spatial distribution shows core-periphery characteristics, and the degree of shrinkage gradually weakened from the central part of the province to the surrounding areas; industrial-type and agricultural-type specialized villages with population shrinkage are distributed in the central part of Henan Province in the areas around Zhengzhou, but the service-type specialized villages with population shrinkage are mainly distributed in the border area of eastern Henan Province. (3) Living conditions, industrial development level, and development foundation are the critical factors for the formation of the spatial pattern of population shrinkage in specialized villages. The spatial pattern of population shrinkage in specialized villages in Henan Province is the result of the direct effect of basic public service conditions such as medical service provision level and education development level, and development conditions of specialized villages such as industry and transportation development, and the indirect effect of the ecological environment of the villages and the condition of resources on top of the living conditions of the residents. [Conclusion] Population shrinkage varies greatly among different types of specialized villages, the formation mechanism is more complex. Improving the basic conditions of villages, expanding the scale of specialized production and raising the per capita income of residents are the keys to easing the population shrinkage of specialized villages. This article proposed differentiated mitigation strategies for different types of specialized villages, which are of great significance for enhancing the attraction for population of specialized villages and prolonging their lives.

Keywords

• specialized villages|population shrinkage|spatiotemporal characteristics|geographic detector|henan province