Comparing farmers’ perceptions of climate change with meteorological data: A case study of livestock farmers in Eswatini’s lowveld region

Abstract

This paper compared livestock farmers’ perceptions of climate change with meteorological data with the intent of understanding the predictors of farmers’ perceptions. Primary and secondary data sources were used. The sample size was 278 farmers. The data was analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The results showed that livestock farmers are mainly aged, married males that practiced mixed farming and reared mainly cattle and goats. The farmers’ perceptions were that the climate had changed notably with increased temperatures, decreased rainfall, delayed rain season and an increased intensity of drought. Climate trends indicated a significant decline in temperatures in the northern lowveld and an increase in the southern lowveld. There was pronounced rainfall variability and a significant decline in summer rainfall in the north. Comparison of climate trends with the farmers’ perceptions revealed some incoherent correlations regarding temperature in the north and annual rainfall throughout the lowveld. Age, education, experience, location, who managed the farm and the crops grown were found to be significant predictors of farmers’ perceptions using multinomial logistic regression. Focusing interventions on these bio-demographic variables will positively enhance farmers’ perception and adaptation. It is further recommended that future studies incorporate drought and floods in comparing trends and perceptions.

Keywords

• Climate change
• livestock farmers
• farmers’ perceptions
• climate trends
• multinomial logistic regression
• Eswatini’s lowveld region