The endangered red panda in Himalayas: Potential distribution and ecological habitat associates

Abstract

The red panda Ailurus fulgens, an endangered herbivorous member of the order Carnivora that is endemic to the eastern Himalayan broadleaf and coniferous forests, is surviving under threats induced by human activity and climate change. The distribution range of the red panda in Nepal represents an understudied remnant population at the edge of its western biogeographic distribution range. To build a potentially suitable habitat, we used red panda occurrence and the least correlated bioclimatic variables in MaxEnt modeling. In addition, habitat variables were recorded in transects and quadrat plots to identify ecologically important variables for the red panda habitat. Currently, 14.23% (21,680 km2) of Nepal is a climatically suitable habitat for the red panda. The mean temperature of the warmest quarter, annual temperature range, mean temperature of the coldest quarter and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the major contributing variables in the model, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.94. Climatic, geographic, and habitat group variables have considerable contributions, while disturbance has a low contribution. Multiple factor analysis identified mixed broadleaf forest, East Himalayan oak-laurel forest, canopy cover >20%, ground substrate use, bamboo cover >20%, tree stump presence, fallen logs of small trees and habitat without grazing as having high contributions in the qualitative groups. Similarly, the elevation, distance from settlements and roads, distance to water sources, annual temperature range, mean diurnal range and annual precipitation were important variables in the quantitative groups. The results will help guide conservation managers in implementing effective habitat management programs for the red panda. Keywords: Himalayas, Habitat feature, Multiple factor analysis, Red panda